Playoffs Analysis | The Extra Point

Halfway through, first look at AFC playoff picture

Posted on October 29, 2014 by tdten

Even after a mid-season QB change, the Bills find themselves in a good spot in the AFC wildcard race.

The second half of the NFL is the best half of the NFL. We think we know who these teams are by now (for the most part) and now the race begins. We’ll take a quick look at the AFC playoff picture as it starts to take form for the first time. Trust me, I am just as interested in the NFC but it is simply too early take a look over there. Spoiler alert: it’s wide open. Not to say the AFC isn’t wide open, which it is, but we can at least take out a few teams to clear up the early picture.

Before the season started, we looked at the AFC and saw three divisions where there was an overwhelming favorite. We couldn’t quite mark them down yet because we at least had to see them play. Well, eight weeks have past and those teams are who we thought they were. The Patriots, Colts, and Broncos are all division winners. Mark it down. In pen. Yes I see you sitting there a game behind, Bills and Chargers. It’s not gonna happen. Have fun fighting for the remaining two wildcard spots. You have company.

On the opposite side of things, there are four teams we can absolutely declare dead. And again, we could have before the season started but, to be “fair” I guess, we gave them a shot. No surprises are to be had here. Take out the Jets, Jaguars, Titans, and Raiders. They’re done.

Before we get into the huge pack fighting for those two wildcard spots, we should talk about the division complicating everything: AFC North. Obviously this remains the last division spot to be filled and could also send a wildcard team, maybe even two. The problem? Without the entire division being tied, the AFC North teams are virtually as tight as they could possibly be. They are so close, in fact, that the division leader Bengals (4-2-1) have less wins than the two teams trailing them (Ravens and Steelers 5-3)! To make matters worse, the team in last (Browns) has a winning record at 4-3. All four teams have a legitimate shot at winning that division. This means, of course, that all four teams also have a legitimate shot at finishing last. I mean, someone has to place last. Moving forward with this playoff picture, we’ll have to keep all four of these teams in the back of our mind as possible division winners, wildcard teams, or last place teams. As more division games take place (Ravens at Steelers this weekend, Browns at Bengals next week), things will start to clear up. For now, we deal with a bit of a complicated, and crowded, pack of wildcard contenders.

All of a sudden, the AFC North is the most exciting division in football.

Considering the teams we’ve already knocked out or talked about, there are only five squads remaining in contention for those elusive two wildcard spots: Chargers (5-3), Bills (5-3), Chiefs (4-3), Dolphins (4-3), and Texans (4-4). But again, we are forced to consider those four from the AFC North, making it nine teams in the race. To make the picture a little easier to manage, I break these teams up into three groups. First, we have four teams–Chargers, Bills, Ravens, Steelers–in the lead pack at 5-3, along with Cincy at 4-2-1. These are the teams in the best position as it currently stands. If the season were to end today, the Chargers and Bills would be your two wildcard teams. These teams are in a good spot, but not by much. Right behind them is the “step behind” group, with the 4-3 Chiefs, Dolphins, and Browns. If you want a concise group of teams to watch in the AFC, keep your eye on these three for the next couple weeks or so. Every win one of these teams picks up from here on out will make the AFC that much more competitive. Finally, we have a group with a single member, the 4-4 Texans, who are on the outside looking in. Yes, they only have one more loss than the preceding group, but when they finally hit their bye in week 10, all the other AFC teams will have a chance to gain ground. Remember, with only two teams filling the wildcard, the Texans will need a lot to go their way when they don’t win.

So that’s the picture. Three groups with a bunch of good teams. But what really lies ahead for the AFC? Right off the bat, I have to say that things do not look good for the Dolphins. They face a brutal stretch where six of their next seven games are against teams with at least five wins. This includes games in Detroit, Denver, and New England. Their week 1 win over the Patriots is the sole quality win to this point. Their other wins have come against abysmal Oakland, inept New York Jets, and underachieving Chicago. If the first half of the season has been any indication of who the Dolphins are, then I can’t see any way they make it to the playoffs with what lies ahead.

Success against four manageable teams will put the Browns ahead of the playoff race.

The Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals are as much of a toss-up as you can get. Baltimore has looked great but was just swept by the sliding Bengals, and the Steelers are as inconsistent as can be. Good luck figuring them out any time soon. But what about the Browns? We are so used to seeing the big three fight it out year after year that we may overlook the team that we’ve heard for years now is “going to contend soon.” So does Cleveland actually have a shot to take the division? They absolutely do, but would have a much better shot in any other division. They have a crucial four-game stretch where they face teams with four wins or less (aka beatable teams). If they go 2-2 or less in these next four, the wildcard spot becomes their only hope. These are games they need to win. Meetings with the Colts and Ravens still lie ahead. Losing such critical ground in a rabid division such as the AFC North be nearly impossible to recover from. Even a wildcard spot will become difficult to achieve with teams like the Chargers and Bills gunning just as hard.

The eye-test has me loving San Diego more than Buffalo or Kansas City, even though KC just beat the Chargers in week 7. Their running game is eviscerated with injuries, yet Philip Rivers continues to carry the team to win after win. But like Miami, a brutal stretch awaits that has the potential to derail their playoffs hopes. They face Baltimore, New England, Denver, and San Francisco from weeks 13-16. They’ll need to get out of there with at least a couple of wins to secure a wildcard spot. The Chiefs and Bills are a couple teams I’ve been low on for most of the season, but have impressed me with recent wins. They face each other in week 10 in what could be a season-defining game. The winner will own the head-to-head tiebreaker in the case that these two finish with the same record.

So that’s where we stand halfway through the season. Enough drama for you? Just wait, every passing week will yield better and better games. It should have been readily clear that I have no idea how the AFC play out. I guess my gut feeling says we’ll see one AFC North team (pick one) and the Chargers steal those two wildcard spots.

If you thought the first half of the NFL season was good, buckle up.

Conference Championship Quick Picks (2013-2014)

Posted on January 19, 2014 by tdten

AFC Championship: New England Patriots (12-4) at Denver Broncos (13-3)

January 19, 2013 CBS 3:00pm

Pick: Broncos

In the first game of day, we’ll be treated to yet another matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Enjoy this one because we don’t know how many more times we’ll see the two best QBs of our generation on the same field in the playoffs. Their regular season meeting was an absolute classic, with Brady erasing a 24-0 deficit en route to a 34-31 comeback win in OT. Despite jumping out to that early lead, Manning had his worst game of the regular season against these Patriots. It was only the second time all season Peyton was held to under 60% (52.8) completion and the only time he was held to under 200 yards (150). New England made it readily clear that they know how to stop Manning and if they can keep him at bay on Saturday, they will walk away winners once more. However, a couple things are different this time around that may tip the scales in Denver’s favor. Perhaps the biggest difference is the fact that they don’t have to play in Foxborough this time around–where New England is 8-0–and instead play in front of their home fans where they’ve only lost once. In as tightly contested a game as this, you better believe home-field advantage will be a factor. Another big change is going to be the absence of Rob Gronkowski, who shredded Denver for 90 yards on seven receptions and a TD. That’s one big guy Denver doesn’t have to account for anymore. I can find multiple reasons why both teams can win, but Denver will have the slight edge and will capitalize.

NFC Championship: San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

January 19, 2013 FOX 6:30pm

Pick: Seahawks

On the other side of the league, we’ll have the two young guns Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick face off. Two veterans in one game, two up-and-comers in another. You really can’t make this stuff up. Could we ask for anything better? Anyways, for as much attention as these two QBs will get, this game will come down to defense. These bitter rivals boast two of the best defenses in the NFL and will swarm to the ball every chance they get. San Francisco is red-hot right now. Winners of eight straight, the Niners held Aaron Rodgers’ offense to 20 points and Cam Newton’s to 10. However, in both games the SF defense allowed 90+ rushing yards, an aspect of the game that Seattle thrives on. The Seahawks torched New Orleans on the ground for 174 yards and if San Fran allows anywhere close to that number, they are in for a long day. Don’t take it from me, just take a look at the numbers: in Seattle’s 29-3 win in Week 2 over SF, Seattle rushed for 172 yards. In the Week 14 rematch, Seattle only rushed for 86 and lost. It’s pretty simple for San Francisco: stop the run. With the crowd at record volume at CenturyLink Field, Seattle should be able to move the ball just enough to squeak out a close defensive win.

Sunday Divisional Playoff Quick Picks (2013-2014)

Posted on January 12, 2014 by tdten

NFC Divisional: San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Carolina Panthers (12-4)

January 12, 2013 FOX 1:05pm

Pick: 49ers

You won’t have to wait long on Sunday to see the best matchup of the weekend. At home, with the 2-seed, and a victory over San Francisco already under their belt, Carolina is the underdog by 1 point. Two of the best defenses in football are putting the over/under at 41.5, the lowest of the four divisional games. As the home dog, you better believe Carolina will play with a chip on their shoulder. They boast quality wins over New Orleans, San Francisco, and New England, not to mention the countless other teams they have crushed. So why do I like the Niners? Jim Harbaugh has his troops locked in. The defense has only allowed an average of 16.2 points a game in their past seven games (all wins) and Colin Kaepernick has only thrown two picks (one of them against Seattle’s defense). In Kap’s first nine games this season, he had four 0 passing TD games. He’s thrown a TD pass, and often more than one, in every game since. In five of the seven games he finished with a passer rating over 100. Get the picture? Kaepernick is on a roll and even when he doesn’t have a great game, like last week at Green Bay, the Niners can win. It’ll be a battle for the ages, but watch Kaepernick have a solid game against a defense that harassed him earlier in the season.

AFC Divisional: San Diego Chargers (9-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3)

January 12, 2013 CBS 4:40pm

Pick: Broncos

San Diego is the biggest underdog of all four games this weekend, but don’t count them out. They’ve already proved they can handle the Broncos at home after a 27-20 victory in Week 15. Just five weeks before, however, Denver topped San Diego on the road 28-20. In both games, San Diego held the ball for over 38 minutes, forced one turnover, and passed for under 200 yards. So what gave San Diego the edge in Week 15? It may have had something to do with the Chargers’ success in the running game on both sides of the ball. In their victory, San Diego held Denver to just 18 rushing yards the entire game, compared to 84 in their defeat. Likewise, San Diego torched Denver on the ground for 177 yards in Week 15 and 131 in Week 10. While Peyton Manning will grab the headlines before and after the game, it will likely be the success of these two ground attacks that determines our winner. As you can see, Denver doesn’t have to out-run San Diego to win, but they do have to put the ball on the ground enough to take some of the pressure off Manning. If San Diego can keep Denver’s running backs at bay while applying pressure to Manning, they can pull off a shocker. I still have to go with the Broncos. Denver has so many offensive weapons that it will be too hard for San Diego to keep up. In one game Eric Decker caught four TD passes, in another Demaryius Thomas caught three, and both Wes Welker and Julius Thomas have had multiple 1+ TD games. Beating Denver once is something, but beating them twice in a row is something else entirely. Peyton Manning won’t let it happen.

Saturday Divisional Playoff Quick Picks (2013-2014)

Posted on January 11, 2014 by tdten

NFC Divisional: New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

January 11, 2013 FOX 4:35pm

Pick: Seahawks

It’s tough not to think back to Week 13 when Seattle rolled New Orleans 34-7. Seattle looked like the much better team then and they are still the better team now. If the Saints want to advance, it will have to come from the arm of Drew Brees (as always). Brees was held to a season-low 147 yards in that Week 13 matchup, though he managed to avoid throwing any picks. Even if Brees plays a great game, he’ll need an average run defense to contain the best running game in the NFL (allowed 127 rushing yards against Seattle). Even then, they still need to contain the mobile QB Russell Wilson, who threw for 310 yards against the Saints. Can the Saints win? Of course they can, Seattle is vulnerable like everybody else. Having said that, I have to go with the team that owns the best defense (leads NFL in takeaways), the best running game, and the best home field advantage in the league. It may not be the blowout we saw in Week 13, but Seattle has more than enough talent to advance to the NFC Championship.

AFC Divisional: Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)

January 11, 2013 CBS 8:15pm

Pick: Patriots

Picking against the Colts makes me feel uneasy, especially after watching them storm back against KC. Indianapolis is on a mission. Luckily for New England, they own the best coach in the NFL, Bill Belichick, and one of the best QBs, Tom Brady. These two guys are the main reason why I’m picking New England. They’ve been here before and they know how to handle the big time. Crippled by injuries from the very start, namely the WR corp, New England still found a way to win 12 games and only needs one more to advance to the conference championship. Even when New England lost, it was only by an average of 4.5 points. The bottomline is that New England is really tough to beat. Even without Gronk, Brady will do what he does best to win, spreading the ball around to keep the defense on their toes. I’m taking New England in a late 4th-quarter victory.

Championship Sunday Preview

Posted on January 19, 2013 by tdten

In January 2012, we watched two thrilling championship games. One was decided in the final seconds of regulation while the other needed OT. The Pats escaped the Ravens and the Giants squeezed by the Niners. Those memories are still fresh now, but as time goes on we tend to forget the losers in the championship games. Remember who the Steelers and Packers beat to get to Super Bowl XLV? Or how about who the Saints and Colts beat before XLIV? If we are lucky enough to remember the Super Bowl loser after a few years, the conference championship losers are almost impossible to remember after enough time.

A year later and three teams who made it this far in 2012 are back. The one different team is the Atlanta Falcons, who (in a way) are replacing the champion New York Giants, thus guaranteeing we will have a new Super Bowl champ. For as different as these four teams’ seasons have been, they have a lot in common this weekend. Their toughest test this season will be Sunday and they all know that losing this game will mean being forgotten in a matter of 2-3 years. I could spend a lot of time talking about all the minute details of the game, like matchups, weather, home field advantage, playmakers, x-factors, etc. While I’ll still cover those briefly in my predictions, I feel that these games are more about what it would mean for each team if they could just win a couple more games.

NFC Championship Game, San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) at Atlanta Falcons (14-3)

January 20 2013, 3:00 PM ET, FOX

A new era: From 2003 through 2010, the San Francisco 49ers suffered through an eight-year playoff drought. In this span, they had seasons ranging from sub-par to positively dreadful. By the end of 2010, they hadn’t won the NFC West for as long as they could remember and talk of a Super Bowl was laughable. It was finally enough when they fired Mike Singletary and hired Jim Harbaugh from Stanford. For a 6-win team in 2010, Harbaugh couldn’t have asked for a better first year. They cruised to the NFC West title and a spectacular 13-3 year. Their magical season ended at the hands of the Giants in the NFC Championship. That season didn’t look like a fluke then and it certainly doesn’t now, because here are the 49ers right back where they were last year. The Giants are out and the Falcons are in. Alex Smith is out and Colin Kaepernick is in. Could Kaepernick be the QB the Niners have been longing for? San Francisco has a golden opportunity to take it a step further this year and continue what looks to be the start of a new and exciting era for the San Francisco 49ers.

Super Bowl victories change the way we look at QBs.

First Super Bowl? Out of the 32 NFL teams that exist now, only a little more than half (18) have won Super Bowls. Atlanta is one of those 14 teams remaining who are without the ultimate prize. Where they find themselves now is the closest they have been to winning a Super Bowl since 2004, when they lost to the Eagles in the conference championship. Since then, Atlanta has become infamous for its impressive regular seasons but lack of playoff success. Last Sunday, they finally got over that hump but a loss to San Francisco would simply become the “fourth playoff loss in five games.” They would return to that same team we’ve known; the team who can’t get it done. A lot of pressure hangs on Matt Ryan, a quarterback who knows how to win and put up great stats, but whose lack of playoff production has prevented him from being considered one of the NFL’s elite QBs. A win this Sunday would mean new hope for a hurting franchise, one that has seen its playoff competition use Atlanta as a path to the Super Bowl.

Prediction: While I don’t expect Atlanta to play like they did in the second half against Seattle, I still feel the San Francisco is too hot to stop. You can point to the defense, Kaepernick, Harbaugh, or whoever, but it’s the combination of San Francisco’s threats that will stop the Atlanta Falcons. If Atlanta wants to stop San Fran, they absolutely cannot turn the ball over and need to find a way to stop Kaepernick from running wild. I don’t see Kaepernick having as good a game as he did against Green Bay, but surely a good enough performance to win. I predict he passes for over 200 and runs for over 70 as San Francisco pulls away late. 49ers win, 34-24

AFC Championship Game, Baltimore Ravens (12-6) at New England Patriots (13-4)

January 20 2013, 6:30 PM ET, CBS

Unfinished business: Less than a minute remaining, Baltimore was just a touchdown away from taking the lead over New England and sealing their first Super Bowl birth in a decade. The next 30 seconds went as bad as any Ravens’ fan could have imagined. A Lee Evans drop for the win was bad enough. For a second it looked like they had knocked off the Pats, but then the ball hit the turf in the next second. But hope was not lost, not by a long shot. Billy Cundiff was sent out to kick a 32-yard field goal, not much more than a chip shot, to send the game to overtime. The nightmare continued as Cundiff shanked the kick wide left and sent New England to the Super Bowl. Here we are, a year later, and the Ravens have earned a second chance. The same team, the same quarterback, and the same coach all stand in their way. Cundiff and Evans are no longer a part of the Ravens. Ray Lewis has announced his retirement after the season. Baltimore couldn’t have asked for a better situation to be in. They can only hope that their nightmare from last year doesn’t pick up where it left off.

Tom Brady could join Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the only QBs with four Super Bowls.

Building on the legacy: New England had its share of heartbreak last year, losing its second Super Bowl in five years, both to the Giants. But nobody will think of New England as the team needing that “special” win. This is a team that has been to the playoffs seven times in the 2000s and three times in the 2010s. New England has been the dominant force in the NFL, never mind the AFC. Those last two Super Bowl losses have tainted the Belichick-Brady reign slightly, but a Super Bowl win this year will prompt talks of the greatest coach-QB combo ever and best QB ever, among others. A loss to Baltimore on Sunday could mean the start of New England’s dominance slipping away, making way for rising NFL powers. Whatever happens Sunday, the effect on New England will be significant.

Prediction: As well as the Ravens played at Denver and as well as they defend against Brady, I have to go with New England in this one. Belichick and Brady are just so good in these championship games and as close as this one might be, I find it hard to imagine the Ravens coming out on top. Baltimore will have to pressure Brady effectively to throw him off rhythm. Even with Gronk out, I see Brady finding enough weapons to exploit the Ravens’ secondary. I’m looking forward to another classic as Brady finds another way to escape to the Super Bowl. Patriots win, 24-21

Grading all the possible Super Bowl matchups

Posted on January 18, 2013 by tdten

Four teams left and four possible Super Bowl matchups. We’ve seen some great Super Bowls recently, but scattered among them has also been some snoozers. What is the matchup that will have us on the edge of our seat and which one will have us wishing for the commercials to come back? Ok, maybe none of these scenarios will be quite that bad, but some are clearly better than others:

Brady and Kaepernick know how to please a crowd.

Patriots vs. 49ers: This is the game we all want to see. It’s the game that will get the best ratings. Why? It features arguably the two best teams remaining, both of which were as close to Super Bowl XLVI as a team can get before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion. We would be treated to two offenses who love to put up big numbers. There would be playmakers all over the field in this game and it would most likely be the closest spread of any other matchup. Both teams not only have long histories, but rich histories with eight Super Bowls between them. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will get a chance to add to their legacy and win their first Super Bowl since spygate. Colin Kaepernick would get a chance to do what Alex Smith never could and undoubtedly win over the rest of the Niners’ fans who believe Smith should be starting. And let’s not forget the possible start of a great NFL coaching career for Jim Harbaugh, who delivered two NFC West titles to a previously abysmal team. Despite seeing these two teams already play, I would be thrilled to see them play again and I don’t think I’m alone. We all love underdogs but let’s not lie to ourselves, we all want to see these two powerhouses go head-to-head. Grade: A

Ravens vs. 49ers: Last year, we were a couple conference championship wins away from getting a sibling coaching matchup. We are that close again this year with John Harbaugh leading Baltimore in his 5th year and Jim Harbaugh in his sophomore year with the Niners. It could the Harbaugh brothers in what would be called either the Harbaugh Bowl or “Harbowl”. Which brother will prevail? It’s a fun concept for awhile, but the matchup between the players is what truly matters. After beating Green Bay and Atlanta, Colin Kaepernick would face his toughest test yet against Baltimore’s defense. Can the Niners stop Joe Flacco’s lethal long ball? San Francisco would be favored, but who knows what the Ravens are capable of after knocking out the top two seeds in the AFC. This wouldn’t be the best matchup we could get, but I wouldn’t complain either. Grade: B

In his final year, Ray Lewis is two wins away from the best ending a player can ask for.

Ravens vs. Falcons: In what some are calling the “Retirement Bowl,” we would see two players, Ray Lewis and Tony Gonzalez, trying to end their careers in the best way possible. Lewis will go down as one of the best defenders ever as well as an outspoken leader. Most of the headlines will be focused on his story and the chance to complete last year’s unfinished business. Despite how it ends, Tony Gonzalez has earned a place in the Hall of Fame and will be considered one of the greatest tight ends to play the game. He just won his first ever playoff game last Sunday and what a story it would be if he could go 3-0 in his playoff career. As far as the game goes, the spread would be very close and it would be the season’s first meeting between the two. However, these are still the two underdogs and the quality of play would be less than the best scenario, relatively speaking. In the grand scheme of things, this would be a good game that I would be happy to watch. Grade: B-

Patriots vs. Falcons: Out of all the four scenarios, this matchup would be the biggest David vs. Goliath game. Despite Atlanta being the top-seeded NFC team, they would be fairly heavy underdogs against a team who is known for its recent Super Bowl appearances. Sometimes mismatches have given us some classic Super Bowl games (III, XLII), but more often than not they have come up short (XXI, XXX, XLII). Outside of New England and Atlanta fans, very few people will be rooting for this game. All we would hear for the next two weeks is “How can Atlanta stun New England?” or “Is there anything the Falcons can do to stop Tom Brady and all his weapons?” Of course there is always a chance that any game can be close, but the chances are lowest in this matchup. Grade: C

NFL Divisional Weekend: Review

Posted on January 17, 2013 by tdten

After a rather underwhelming weekend of opening-round playoff games, the NFL playoffs redeemed itself with the highest scoring playoff weekend in history. We saw some eye-opening individual performances, some from players we knew and some from names we’ve never heard of. The field was cut in half once more and just like that, we are down to just four teams. Three games remain and the stakes are higher than ever; two conference championships and the Super Bowl. All three games lived up to the hype last year. Will we be treated to another thrilling round this weekend? Last weekend’s divisional round is surely a tough act to follow.

With 5 TDs and no picks, Joe Flacco leads all playoff quarterbacks.

BAL vs. DEN: By the end of this electrifying game, I was absolutely confident that it would end up being the weekend’s best. I had no idea what kind of competition it had coming its way. Having said that, I am still sure this game was the best of the weekend and perhaps the entire year. I could spend an entire blog post talking about this game and all of its different angles. I could talk about Denver’s hot start, Baltimore’s hotter start, Trindon Holliday’s two special teams touchdowns, Joe Flacco’s magnificent passes, Denver’s horrible pass coverage, the lack of both defenses in regulation, the strength of both defenses in overtime, the refs’ questionable calls, John Fox’s questionable coaching decisions, what this means for Baltimore, what this means for Denver, or even what this means for Tim Tebow. There is just too much to cover in this game. I will say, however, that Baltimore did what very few thought it could, including me. They pulled off a legitimate upset. Even as the ball was leaving Justin Tucker’s foot, I still didn’t truly believe Baltimore could pull it off. They made me quite nervous for my pick in the AFC Championship game.

Score: 38-35 Baltimore

GB vs. SF: For a large portion of this game, it looked like we would be in for another late thriller. Green Bay and San Francisco were trading scores back and forth and no team had a two-score lead until the 4th quarter. San Francisco simply took over and made it clear that the better team won. The story of this game is about one guy: Colin Kaepernick. He made sure everyone knew that he was the right choice at the QB position and he did it as much with his arm as he did with his legs. He outplayed Aaron Rodgers in the air and outplayed every playoff running back with 181 rushing yards. This was by far his best performance of the year. He is a true threat to all defenses and I would not be surprised if he carried the Niners all the way to a Super Bowl.

Score: 45-31 San Francisco

The weight of Atlanta’s Super Bowl hopes rest on the shoulders of Matt Ryan.

SEA vs. ATL: All eyes were on the Falcons to see if they could win their first playoff game in years. Leading 27-7 late in the third, it looked like they were a changed team. These were the Falcons that could take it all the way. But one quarter later, the game had taken a 180 degree turn. Atlanta was now down one with 31 seconds left. I wouldn’t blame Falcons fans for thinking their team was cursed. But despite a 4th quarter pick and zero 4th quarter touchdowns, Matt Ryan knew he had one more shot. After two long complete passes, Ryan had taken the Falcons into field goal range. Again on the brink of a playoff win, Atlanta did not blink this time. It was ugly, but Ryan and the Falcons advanced to the NFC Championship despite an incredible comeback by Russell Wilson and Seattle. So what does this mean going forward for the Falcons? We at least know that they’ll be at home and that is huge for them. But my honest feeling is that they’ll need one heck of a game to knock out the 49ers on any field. Maybe all they needed was that one playoff win. Who knows? We will find out this Sunday.

Score: 30-28 Atlanta

TEX vs. NE: Perhaps the least exciting of all four games, this game went how most expected it would: a multiple score Patriots win in which the Pats put up a lot of points. But there are still plenty of story lines from this game that pertain to the future of both teams. How will the Texans get better? Perhaps they need to reevaluate the QB position and determine if Matt Schaub is the guy who can take them all the way. What do the injuries to Gronk and Woodhead mean? Will they make the difference against a defense that Tom Brady has struggled against? This AFC Championship could be a lot closer than we would have imagined. Also, who is this Shane Vereen guy? Leave it up to New England to give us new names to talk about.

Score: 41-28 New England

NFL Divisional Weekend Preview: Sunday (2013)

Posted on January 13, 2013 by tdten

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)

January 13 2013, 1:00 PM ET, FOX

After thwarting RG3 and the Redskins last week, the Seahawks travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. This will be the first meeting between these two and it should be an interesting one. On one side you’ve got the pass-heavy Falcons who can strike with big plays when the defense is off-guard. Then you’ve got the Seahawks, known for their strong defense and effective running game. Two very different teams but only one will advance to the NFC Championship.

After three failed attempts, will Matt Ryan finally get his first playoff win?

Playoff hump: The big story heading into this one will be the Falcons’ history of playoff losses. Atlanta has had excellent regular seasons in the past few years. They have reached the postseason in three of the past four seasons with 10+ win seasons. But in those three seasons they have lost in their first playoff game. That’s the story. Will it continue this weekend? Atlanta is coming off one of the best regular seasons they have had in a decade, but it will all be for naught if they lose on Sunday.

Prediction: With Seattle on a hot streak and Atlanta trying to get over the hump, the odds seem surprisingly stacked against the top seeded Falcons. Call me crazy, but I like the Falcons to shock in this one. Matt Ryan and his offense will figure out the tough Seattle defense and win with some huge passing plays. Falcons win, 24-21

Houston Texans (12-4) at New England Patriots (12-4)

January 13 2013, 4:30 PM ET, CBS

Two 12-win teams but one is the clear favorite. New England is favored by nine points at home. These teams met in week 14 but it was hardly the matchup we expected. New England dominated in a 42-14 rout. After Denver’s loss Saturday, New England is now the highest seed in the AFC. How can Houston stop the Pats’ incredible offense?

Don’t overlook Stevan Ridley, one of the most underrated backs in the league.

Offensive power: If you ask me, there is no question who had the best offense this season. Down the stretch, New England simply scored at will, putting up scores like 45, 37, 59, 49, 42, and 34. They had a great offense last year as well, but this time they come with a double threat. This is no longer an offense relying solely on its passing game. Their running game, led by Stevan Ridley, ranks in the top 10 of the NFL. Houston better figure out a way to make New England one-dimensional or it will be another high-scoring affair for New England.

Prediction: At the beginning of the postseason, I picked New England to take it all the way. There is no reason for me to stop now. I will say, however, that Denver was in the same position yesterday against Baltimore and lost. New England has the coaching and talent to avoid a disaster like Denver’s and I like them to win in a big way. Patriots win, 31-17

NFL Divisional Weekend Preview: Saturday (2013)

Posted on January 12, 2013 by tdten

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Denver Broncos (13-3)

January 12 2013, 4:30 PM ET, CBS

The second round of the playoffs opens in Denver, where Baltimore will try to clinch their second straight AFC Championship birth. They have a tough task ahead of them against the Broncos, a team that hasn’t lost since early October. To make matters tougher, Baltimore will have to beat the Broncos in Mile High, something that hasn’t been done since week 3.

Rematch: This playoff matchup will be these teams’ second meeting in about a month. Their first game in week 15 ended in a 34-17 Denver victory, a score that didn’t indicate how bad it actually was. Denver led 31-3 at the end of the 3rd via a couple rushing touchdowns and a defensive TD, among others. Perhaps the scariest part of this game was that Peyton Manning did not have a great day. He had a good day, throwing for 1 TD and no picks but his passer rating fell below 100 for just the sixth time all season. It is crazy to imagine what a great Peyton Manning might do in his own stadium. The Ravens better have a good defensive game plan or it’s going to be another long day.

Von Miller has been the leader of a great Denver defense.

Defense prevails: With Peyton Manning grabbing all the headlines, it might be easy to overlook Denver’s amazing defense. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking 3rd in both passing and rushing yards allowed (199.6, 91.1). They have allowed over 24 points only three times all season. Interestingly enough, those three games were the only three losses on Denver’s schedule. If Baltimore’s offense needs a guideline, they might want to aim around the 24-27 area. But based on the way Denver has been playing late, it may need to be even higher. Denver has scored over 30 points in their last three games and one of those games was against Baltimore.

Prediction: The odds are stacked pretty high against Baltimore in this one. To even have a shot, it looks like they’ll need to put up some big points like they did in their 33-14 victory over the Giants in week 16. Denver just needs to play the game they’ve been playing all season and they’ll advance to the AFC Championship. I like Denver in this one, but in a closer game than many may expect. Baltimore’s defense will play well early but once Peyton gets going, it will be almost impossible to slow him down. Ray Lewis’ last game ends in a loss to Denver. Broncos win, 27-20

Green Bay Packers (11-5) at San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)

January 12 2013, 8:00 PM ET, FOX

In perhaps the most anticipated matchup of the weekend, the 49ers host the Packers in another rematch. These teams met back in week 1, but both teams have changed since then. Green Bay is arguably a much better team than they were in the opening weeks and San Francisco has a new QB altogether. It’s hard to believe one of these teams will be gone this early but that is a great example of the cruelty of the NFL playoffs.

Road woes: As good as Green Bay has been at home this season, their road play has been pretty bad at times. Their most recent four road games have featured some shaky performances. Their loss at Giants Stadium was the worst of them, giving up over 30 points in a 38-10 rout. They lost their most recent road game at Minnesota in a close game, but a loss nonetheless. The other two games were wins, but only by one-score margins to non-playoff teams. I’m not saying Green Bay is horrible on the road, because they’re not, but my point is that they are a different team without Lambeau around them. To knock out San Francisco, they’ll need a strong road performance.

Can Colin Kaepernick send the Packers packing?

Stopping Kaepernick: The switch from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick was a gutsy one but one that Jim Harbaugh is sticking with. At this point in the season, we can now properly compare the two QBs. Both QBs have thrown the exact same number of passes (218). Out of these 218 attempts, Smith has been more accurate, thrown more TDs, and has a higher passer rating. So why Kaepernick? It’s simple. Defenses must prepare for his ability to run and pass. Kaepernick is accurate enough passing that he is a legitimate threat regardless of what he decides to do with the ball. He’s still young, but he may be the missing factor the 49ers have been looking for on offense. To stop him, Green Bay will have to contain his running ability. In five of his last six games, Kaepernick has rushed for an average of four or more yards per run. These four yards are enough to be a factor in Saturday’s game if he can get going.

Prediction: Both of these teams have the ability to be great and this may be the most exciting playoff game this postseason. Rodgers will face one of the toughest defenses in the league and will need his O-line to be great. This is why I am going with the 49ers. Green Bay’s offensive line has been anything but great this season and Rodgers will feel the pressure big time. With Rodgers under duress and a poor running game, the Packers will have a difficult time moving the ball like they did last week. San Francisco will get their second consecutive shot at a Super Bowl birth as they advance to the NFC Championship. 49ers win, 21-17

NFL Wildcard Weekend: Review

Posted on January 7, 2013 by tdten

One weekend down in the NFL playoffs and just like that, four teams are sent home. After working tirelessly throughout the season to scrape their way into the playoffs, they are done after one game. It’s cruel, but it’s why I love the NFL playoffs. You have one game to prove your worth. One bad game and you’re done. This weekend, the four best teams clearly won.

Matt Schaub won his first playoff game, but he’ll need to play better to win his second.

CIN vs. HOU: This game started off interesting. Watching the game, it looked like Houston was in full control. However, the score at halftime was only 9-7 in Houtons’s favor. Cincy had one great defensive TD and put themselves in a position to take advantage of Houston’s lack of TDs. But in the end, it was Houston’s defense that stood strong, not allowing one offensive touchdown. Houston was able to run the ball very effectively and managed to win their second game this season where Matt Schaub did not throw a TD pass. Having said all that, Houston did not play a great game overall. There is no way they can get away with four field goals and one touchdown against New England next week. They’ll have to find a way to get their offense going next week or their season is going to come to a painful end.

Score: 19-13 Houston

MIN vs. GB: Minnesota came into this game as the heavy underdog and was outplayed from the opening kickoff. They were without Christian Ponder, but the way Green Bay played, it didn’t seem to matter. Green Bay’s passing offense wasn’t at their best, but they looked very good nonetheless. Ten different players caught passes and four of them had over 50 yards receiving. Minnesota just didn’t have an answer. Green Bay earned themselves a rematch with San Francisco. It’s hard to believe that one of those teams will be eliminated a week from now.

Score: 24-10 Green Bay

With a 125.6 passer rating, Joe Flacco put on the best performance of the weekend.

IND vs. BAL: This was another playoff game where the cold team rose to the occasion. Baltimore had lost four of their last five but looked fully prepared for an outmatched Colts team. Similar to Cincinnati’s offense, Indianapolis could not find the endzone once. Andrew Luck did not play well and the Indy D could not hold off Baltimore for very long. At halftime, the Colts were very much in the game (down four) but the Ravens took over the game and cruised to the 15-point win.

Score: 24-9 Baltimore

SEA vs. WSH: In a game I thought Seattle would struggle on the road, they looked very much at home for most of the game. Washington jumped out to a hot 14-0 start but it was all Seattle for the next three quarters. Seattle’s offense put together some very impressive drives, keeping Washington off-balance with a good combination of run and pass. Many times it was great individual efforts by Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson that kept drives alive. But what impressed me most was Seattle’s defense. They kept Alfred Morris under 100 yards and were very aggressive in pass coverage. Washington’s touchdown late in the first was the last time they smelled a score of any kind. RG3 looked great in the beginning but as the game went on and he took more shots, he wasn’t the same guy. His passes were off and his ability to run was severely cut down. At the time he was knocked out with a nasty leg injury, Seattle was ready to take a two-score lead and put the game away. Out of the four teams that advanced, Seattle looked like the best team. They have the best defense in the league and an underrated offense. It will be tough, but they have a good chance to upset Atlanta if they play like they did in the last three quarters Sunday.

Score: 24-14 Seattle